The Lok Sabha election for Delhi state was completed on April 10, 2014. Whatever be the results of the 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, the BJP and Congress party can live with them. But for the Aam Admi party, April 10 is extremely important. How it fared today will determine its future. In politics, as in most things in life, perceptions are more important than reality.
After the Kejriwal government resigned, after 49 day tenure in Delhi, the AAP expected that the Lt. Governor will order state assembly elections along with the Parliament elections. This expectation was not realized and the entire plan of the AAP became un-stuck. The AAP had no Plan B. It was very sure that the Lt. Governor of Delhi will have to order elections since the general elections were due. But the Lt Governor was very well within his rights to delay dissolution of the state assembly and see whether an alternate government could be formed. The AAP did not expect this step.
The AAP was faced with parliament elections. It had to face elections with very weak defenses. Had the AAP government not resigned, it would have been endowed with immense prestige when Kejriwal went campaigning all over the country. It was a strategic mistake and their in-experience and also the reluctance to take advice created this problem.
If the results of the Delhi 7 seats are bad for the AAP, its survival would be at stake. People will not understand that the Delhi electorate wanted to vote for a Central government and that they were fully aware that Kejriwal was not running for Prime Ministership. The media and all political parties will carry on a campaign that the AA lost its support and it will cease to exist. Such campaigns do have an impact.
At a minimum, the AAP must get a respectable percentage of votes. At a minimum, the AAP must win at least 3 MPs. If it does that, then it will grow in strength. The AAP also selected poor candidates. Except for a couple, the other 5 did not impress the electorate. The high percentage of voting is also intriguing. It can mean anything. This is a situation which the AAP could have avoided. The entire episode shows that very smart people will commit mistakes when they become over-confident or feel that success was purely their invention and not an act of circumstances.
On the day of counting, namely May 16, 2014, we will know whether the AAP committed serious mistakes .or whether they will get a second chance.